2008-2009 BIG EAST PREVIEW: 13) RUTGERS

September 27, 2008

It is a long way up from the bottom of this Big East conference and that is exactly where Rutgers is starting from. This is the third season under Fred Hill Jr and the first two have not gone well. With a head coaching record that now sits at 21-39 and a Big East record of 6-28, Hill enters an important year #3. While we are not likely going to see Ben Howland (Pitt), John Thompson III (Georgetown) or John Beilein (WVU) third year bump, this is the season that progress needs to be shown at Rutgers and, from where we sit, we think it will be coming.

However, you can not expect miracles. In the Big East, you need to have talent and you need that talent to be mixed with experience. On paper, Rutgers seems to have that with three seniors that have all played key roles since they came to Rutgers, but as you can tell from the records, that has not brought along any success. Now, two of those seniors (Jaron Griffin and JR Inman) could be suspended well into the out of conference portion of their schedule, meaning the youngsters might be called on earlier than anticipated, which could be both good and bad.

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Comings:

There is a definite sense of optimism around Rutgers based on the recruiting success Fred Hill Jr. has found recently. Dubbed by fans as ‘Mr. New Jersey’ for his in-state ties, Rutgers welcomes a celebrated class that includes Greg Echenique, 6-foot-9, 260 lb center from St. Benedict’s Prep and Mike Rosario, a 6-foot-3 McDonalds All-American shooting guard from legendary St. Anthony’s of Jersey City. Gaining a highly touted player from both Bob Hurley at St. Anthony’s and son Dan Hurley at St. Benedict’s definitely served notice to other programs near and far. Hill also crossed over the river into New York City and brings along Patrick Jackson, a 6-foot-6 wing who played at Boys & Girls High School in the Bronx last season and Bronx native Christian Morris, a 6-foot-8, 280 pound big man.

Rutgers will also welcome Jonathan Mitchell, a former star at Mount Vernon High School, into the program after transferring from Florida. Mitchell will sit out the 2008-2009 season due to NCAA transfer rules and have two years left with RU beginning in 2009-2010.

Goings:

Byron Joynes was the only senior on last year’s roster. The serviceable big man worked hard in his career, but injuries and conditioning never allowed him to excel in the Big East and his modest three points and five rebound a game averages should be easily made up by others. Also exiting the program are Courtney Nelson (academics) and Justin Sofman (transfer) and neither probably would have seen much time this year.

Net Impact:

The Scarlet Knights easily make out on the plus side of the ledger when taking into consideration what left and what comes into the program. Echenique and Morris provide much needed size to a frontcourt that has had found competing in the Big East to be very tough. Rosario and Jackson add some offensive to a line-up that sorely lacked scoring ability last season. This class should start pushing the Scarlet Knights upwards in the standings, even though from where they are starting out, that is not too hard to comprehend. How high up the standings is still to be determined.


2008-2009 Backcourt Outlook:

The Rutgers backcourt will be improved this coming season. Not only does senior Anthony Farmer return, but a healthy Corey Chandler and a more experienced Mike Coburn will be joined by McDonald’s All-American Mike Rosario, giving RU a very good group of four guards. Fred Hill was an assistant on Jay Wright’s Villanova clubs as they began to assemble a guard contingent that was successful running a four guard line-up, while I can not quite see that coming to fruition at RU this season, this is a group that could develop over time into a top of the line group.

After a 23-point, 8-rebound performance in a loss to North Carolina, it looked like Rutgers had a freshman star in Corey Chandler. However, a foot injury sustained at that time sidetracked the guard’s season and he never seemed to be consistently in the flow the rest of the season. Chandler will be healthy this season and looks to be a player that could have a huge breakthrough season ahead of him.

Returning as a sophomore is Mike Coburn of Mount Vernon (NY). Last season, Coburn was the catalyst as the Scarlet Knights knocked off ranked Villanova and Pittsburgh in consecutive contests for two of their three conference victories. Those two games were part of a three-game stretch where Coburn averaged 21 points and connected on eight of nine three’s. This year, Coburn is likely to be called on to be more of a playmaker than a scorer, and that transition will go a long way in determining the success of RU this season.

Senior Anthony Farmer returns and is coming off a solid season where he scored 10 points a game and a team high 2.3 assists a contest playing 30 minutes a game. Like Coburn, seeing more playmaking ability from Farmer is a must this season. Other players will likely develop as better scoring threats, so the Rutgers offense will need to reflect that development. There is the possibility that Farmer’s role is reduced some this year as the younger players are groomed for future success, which has the potential to be higher than this season’s potential.

Rounding out the backcourt is swingman Earl Pettis, a versatile guard that can handle the ball well and slash to the hoop. Pettis is a perfect role player that also showed he has some potential for more with an 18-point performance against UConn late last season.

On the wing is senior Jaron Griffin and incoming freshman Pat Jackson. Griffin seems to be a perimeter shooting threat, however, he seems to be mired in a three-year long shooting slump, not too promising when that is your biggest weapon. Now, Griffin must deal with the suspension that will keep him out of game action indefinitely to begin the season. Last year, Griffin averaged 7.5 points a game, shooting just 27% from three-point land. In his three year career, he has shot a dreadful 26% from the arc on 324 career attempts. He has led Rutgers in three-point attempts the last two seasons despite not cracking the 30% clip. Jackson is a strong and athletic wing that is constantly working to improve his game. Extending his range and improving his ball handling abilities will have him pushing for more time this year. With Griffin unavailable, Jackson has a great opportunity to seize some additional time early on.


2008-2009 Frontcourt Outlook:

Every year we wait and wait for JR Inman to bust out. However, there is always something that holds him back. As a freshman, it was an injury that cut short his season and last year there were some discipline concerns that kept him out of the starting line-up and catching the ire of Coach Hill. This year, once again we will wait for Inman to bust out, this time because he is suspended from game action indefinitely. Inman is a classic inside/out forward threat with the skills to play outside and the size to play inside at 6-foot-8, 220 pounds. However, the light has yet to click on consistently and now he is in danger of ending his career with much unfulfilled potential. Every season we point to Inman as the key, this year is no different.

Even with Inman being a question mark, the frontcourt should be improved by just having solid depth at the very least. Junior Hamady N’Diaye should be ready to claim more minutes with the graduation of Byron Joynes. N’Diaye is one of the more imposing big men because of his shot blocking skills in the conference and he averaged three blocks a game despite limited time last season. If he improves on the offensive side of the floor, Rutgers will have a very good weapon at their disposal.

Even if N’Diaye is not ready for the full load in the post, Greg Echenique is also a candidate to gain the bulk of the time in the middle. The former St. Benedict’s star where he teamed inside with Louisville Samardo Samuels was quite the recruiting coup for Fred Hill. Echenique was being chased by schools such as Duke, Florida, Pittsburgh, Villanova, etc and made what looked like a very early commitment to Rutgers for the class of 2009. However, as time passed, Echenique began to look into the possibility of becoming a 2008 recruit and lo and behold, here he is. Echenique has a Big East body ready to bang in the post and could be the anchor to the RU team for several seasons.

Completing the RU roster is freshman big man Christian Morris. The large bodied post player still needs to be consistently in shape and might not be called on too much this season, but he is a luxury that Fred Hill has not had since coming to Rutgers, and that is depth up front.

2008-2009 Team Outlook:

On paper, seeing Rutgers picked to finish 13th in the Big East and with a 6-12 conference record might draw some ire from the RU faithful, and I understand it. I really do like this team and am excited to see them in action. I think they are building an EXCELLENT foundation and now they need to learn to win games in the Big East. The talent is there, but largely it is inexperienced and the experienced players have yet to win much at all in this conference. The learning curve on willing is very steep for this squad, from the head coach right down through the new freshman that will be counted on heavily.

I do feel this squad could be a could be a couple tough losses from winning eight or even nine games in the Big East. Their youth and inexperience in winning at this level will cost them a few times, but do not take them lightly, especially in the RAC, or you will be defeated by the Scarlet Knights. Either way, doubling their conference win total is a very good step forward and if they were to get anything from their veterans, more might be able to be accomplished.



2008-2009 Big East Prediction: 6-12


One interesting note...I was looking at one preseason publication on NCAA basketball and the top three teams in the nation were: 1) North Carolina, 2) Connecticut and 3) Pittsburgh according to their rankings. Come early January, Rutgers will know plenty about ALL THREE teams! On Sunday, December 28th, RU plays in Chapel Hill against North Carolina. They then come home to open Big East play on New Year's Eve at the RAC as they host Pittsburgh on Wednesday night. The close this stretch by them traveling to meet Connecticut on Saturday, January 3rd. So, in the course of SIX days, RU faces what might be the three best teams in the NATION! W-O-W! Of course, they follow that up with Marquette and Syracuse the next week...yeah, that's a breather...